China and the United States are embroiled in a Cold War in which a naval showdown in 2025 is plausible, according to historian and author, Professor Niall Ferguson.

This was one of several predictions made by the Harvard fellow and visiting professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing during a conversation with club president, Jodi Schneider, on January 9.

Prof. Ferguson, author of 15 books including The Pity of War: Explaining World War One, discussed global current affairs such as the ongoing Hong Kong protests, the Iran/US tension, the Middle East, Brexit and Scottish independence.

Among his other predictions was the belief that the Hong Kong unrest would reach an “uneasy equilibrium” with no long-term damage to the city’s economy, and that Boris Johnson would still be British Prime Minister in 2025.

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What does it take to become a dictator these days? Creating the illusion of democracy helps, as does surrounding yourself with sycophants.

These and other telling characteristics of some of history’s most infamous dictators – fear and violence included – were scrutinized by Professor Frank Dikötter, author of a new book called How To Be A Dictator.

He told a sold-out club lunch on December 4 of a number of measures that need to be in place to create a successful dictator. Above all, he said, dictators including Hitler, Stalin, Mao, “Baby Doc” Duvalier and Mengistu of Ethiopia all benefitted from the cult of personality.

“The cult of personality was there to destroy common sense, to enforce obedience, to isolate individuals and crush their dignity,” Prof Dikötter said.

He also examined today’s dictators, including Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Xi Jinping.

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Former Hong Kong Chief Executive C.Y. Leung warned that the consequences of the recent district council election results, which saw pro-democracy candidates take more than 80% of seats, “may be far greater than we imagine”.

The vice-chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference used his November 28 appearance at the FCC to reflect on China’s rise since the founding of the Communist Party. He spoke at length about the current unrest in Hong Kong, in particular highlighting what he saw as the foreign interference in the city’s politics. Leung, who was Hong Kong’s third Chief Executive, also accused Western politicians of misunderstanding the Basic Law – the city’s mini-constitution – and advised them to study it.

Referring to protesters’ calls for universal suffrage, Leung said Hong Kong was not a country, comparing it instead to a city like London which has a mayor who answers to the central government.

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Democracy has been in decline globally in recent years, exacerbated by the arrival of digital technology, the emergence of demagogues, the rise of assertive autocratic states, and a failure in too many places of democracy to deliver tangible results.

This was the message delivered by Derek Mitchell, president of the National Democratic Institute, and former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar, when he discussed reinvigorating democracy around the world at the November 26 club lunch.

He began by congratulating Hongkongers for having their voices heard in the recent district elections, which saw a landslide victory for the pro-democracy camp. Ambassador Mitchell also discussed the rise of authoritarianism.

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China won’t become more liberal anytime soon because its people are satisfied with the way the Chinese Communist Party has lifted many out of poverty, according to a China expert.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Professor in Political Science at Hong Kong Baptist University, told the November 14 club lunch that the Chinese government had support from all sections of society, including its billionaire entrepreneurs.

The party is stronger than ever, he said, in part due to the introduction of the social credit system, which monitors citizens, and the restriction of internet access. Its efficient quashing of dissent means its people do not stand up to the one-party system.

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So you’ve written your first novel and it’s won widespread plaudits – what next?

Write a second book, of course – but that’s easier said than done, as novelist Mohammed Hanif discovered when he found himself in exactly that position.

The Pakistani journalist and writer is now working on a fourth book following the success of A Case of Exploding Mangoes (2008), Our Lady of Alice Bhatti (2011), and Red Birds (2018). He shared writing tips at the November 13 club lunch and discussed the issues facing his homeland.

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Michael Rutter and Peter Hickman, two of motorcycle road racing’s most successful riders, revealed the ups and downs of the sport when they appeared at the FCC ahead of the 2019 Macau Grand Prix.

The pair, who between them have dominated their field for the last two decades, talked about how they got into the white-knuckle sport, what they’re thinking about while hitting speeds in excess of 200mph, and the future of electric motorcycle racing.

You can watch this November 12 club lunch below.

Matt Murray, Editor in Chief of The Wall Street Journal, talked about the newspaper’s big scoops and the future of journalism when he appeared at the club on November 6.

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