Anyone looking to invest or have a better understanding of how Asia’s stock markets function shouldn’t be paying attention to the performance of the Dow Jones Index, said renowned market analyst Herald van der Linde during a lunch talk at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club. 

“You should look at what the bond market does first,” said van der Linde. “What happens there and how do we translate that back into the stock market?”

Van der Linde, who has worked at HSBC for more than 15 years and is currently Chief Asia Equity Strategist, is the author of the recently published book Asia’s Stock Markets from the Ground Up, a jargon-free beginner’s guide to understanding equities in the region. An FCC member, he previously wrote Jakarta: History of a Misunderstood City, which was released in 2020.

He highlighted the fact that bond yields have consistently declined in recent decades, thanks to more and more money being placed in fixed income instruments, which pushes interest rates down, but the trend could reverse if demographic changes cause a major shift in where money is invested.

He also said that many people focus on economic indicators such as GDP to analyze markets, but he disagrees with that approach. 

“In particular in Asia, my view is that we don’t really have to look at that,” he said. “There’s a massive kind of disparity between what the economies are and what the markets are.”

He recommended digging deep to understand what drives companies’ profits, and he pointed out demographics, technology, government regulations and rising wealth as key factors to consider.

Van der Linde also addressed growing concerns over inflation, saying that he’s in the camp that believes the world is in a transitory stage and that inflation will calm down. Still, he admitted that the U.S. central bank had acknowledged that inflation was perhaps going to last longer than initially expected.

But he also said the central bank shouldn’t necessarily respond to pressure to raise interest rates to combat inflation, because growth had been prematurely stifled in the past as a result of such moves.

“The central bank has got to be careful because we’ve been in this situation three or four times over the last ten years,” said van der Linde.

Watch the full discussion below:

Nearly 20 years after the defeat of the Taliban in November 2001, a panel of journalists told an audience at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club that no one could have predicted the ease with which the Taliban regained control of Kabul this past August. 

“I’m still in shock and denial even two months later,” said Mujib Mashal, South Asia bureau chief at The New York Times and previously the newspaper’s senior foreign correspondent in Afghanistan. “Some of us did see that this was coming, but everyone was sort of surprised and shocked by how sudden and how complete the collapse was.”

CNN’s Anna Coren, who was on the ground in Afghanistan earlier this year, said that she and her colleagues sensed trouble because of the way in which the Taliban seized control of the provinces, but even they were surprised by what happened in Kabul.

“I don’t think in our wildest dreams we thought that the Taliban would just roll in on the 15th of August without a shot being fired, which is basically what happened,” said Coren. 

Reflecting on the months leading up to the American withdrawal, Mashal said that the problems were evident in the negotiations.

“They were trying to build a peace process on a decision to withdraw that had been made already, and very clearly without much flexibility,” said Mashal. “It felt like it was a last-ditch effort.”

As for the present situation, James Edgar, a journalist for Agence France-Presse based in Kabul, offered a sobering account of daily life there.

“Access to money is extremely difficult. People are really desperate to get cash in hand, and that isn’t happening. People are going to work but they aren’t getting paid.”

Watch the full discussion below:

While COP26 took place in Glasgow, Laurence McCook of WWF Hong Kong, KPMG China partner Irene Chu and conservationist Dr. Billy Hau spoke at the FCC on November 1. During this lunchtime panel, the environmental experts spelled out Hong Kong’s ecological toll and outlined its role in creating a more sustainable world.  

The WWF ranks the city’s ecological footprint (measuring human demand on land and water) as the third worst in Asia-Pacific and 14th worst globally. To change that, Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced in her October 2021 policy address that Hong Kong will spend about HK$240 billion to reduce the effects of climate change over the next 20 years. As part of this plan, the city aims to stop using coal for electricity by 2035 and reduce carbon emissions from public transit. 

This is a start, but not enough, according to the speakers. “I’m frustrated at times,” said Hau, a terrestrial ecologist who consults the government. “The Hong Kong government really needs to increase the policy significance.” 

According to the speakers, the administration will need to work closely with the corporations that call the city home. For instance, Hong Kong can incentivise eco-conscious initiatives, such as sustainable supply chains and eco-conscious developments.  

Hong Kong has also become an active borrower of green debt, recently selling nearly US$4 billion of green bonds to international investors in November 2021. Green bonds have become a popular investment tool in recent years, as they allow governments, corporations and banks to raise funds to use for environmentally conscious activities. 

Sustainable finance practices — regulations, standards and investment products tied to environmentally and socially conscious outcomes — have also picked up in Hong Kong. “We are still at the beginning of that journey,” said Chu.  

She added that corporations and banks still need to equate environmental factors, like biodiversity loss, to capital loss. “The better you can connect the two, the more you can introduce policies or incentives or rules to change behaviour,” said Chu. 

Products that create monetary value now, such as oil, will mean little if the rest of the world has crumbled. “Without bees to pollinate your crops, you don’t have food, and without food, it doesn’t matter what you have in your bank account,” said McCook, who works as the Director of Oceans Conservation at WWF.  

The speakers also urged the government, companies and individuals to recognise the threats against biodiversity. Hong Kong’s development projects directly impact the natural habitats of animals, including endangered Chinese white dolphins. Beyond construction, Hong Kong’s consumers have a significant impact on supply chain practices.  

“The footprint of Hong Kong is much larger than the geographic area,” said McCook. He used the example of the city’s seafood intake. According to the WWF, Hong Kong is the world’s eighth-largest seafood consumer, consuming 66.5 kg per capita in 2017. Conscious consumers can impact the type of seafood bought and sold in Hong Kong by buying sustainably sourced products and expressing their concern to vendors. 

But there’s reason to be hopeful, said Chu. “Because of COVID-19, there is more awareness and urgency to act because people associate the pandemic with climate change.”

Watch the full discussion below:

The Hong Kong handover negotiations between Britain and China were fraught with tension, anxiety and distrust according to former foreign correspondent Michael Sheridan, author of The Gate to China: A New History of the People’s Republic & Hong Kong. In a Zoom talk hosted by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club, Sheridan described the difficulties and the downfalls of the handover.

“I think it’s very important to abolish any illusions that there might have been that this was a very soft and gentle and friendly handover,” said Sheridan. “It was a hard bargain struck between two big nations.”

“Unfortunately — and this is the point I make in the book — the people who were left out were the people of Hong Kong,” said Sheridan. “The fault on both sides — and I fault the British for this primarily — is that the people of Hong Kong were given no voice in their own future, and that did not have to be the case. It was a policy choice.”

He also discussed different periods of history, such as the late 1970s, when a Chinese delegation visited Hong Kong and learned about the stock exchange, free markets, the port, the banking system, capital controls and more, all of which inspired reform on the mainland. 

Asked to comment on the future of Hong Kong, Sheridan said that the city would benefit economically from participating in the Greater Bay Area, but noted that the political situation had shifted dramatically already and would continue to do so. 

“I think people in Hong Kong, particularly, may I say, expatriates in Hong Kong, need to accept that they are living in the People’s Republic of China,” said Sheridan. “Hong Kong is a Chinese city.”

“Life in Hong Kong is going to be a compromise, and the question is at what point along the scale do you as an individual or a company strike that compromise.”

Watch the full discussion below:

COVID-19 has caused widespread tragedy and turmoil, but a panel of journalists and media experts said that there have been upsides for journalists and newsrooms in the midst of the pandemic. In a Zoom event hosted by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club and moderated by correspondent member and Clare Hollingowrth Fellow Jennifer Creery, the panelists shared their views on the shifts in the media landscape. 

The author of a weekly newsletter called Dari Mulut ke Mulut which focuses on Southeast Asia, Erin Cook said she started writing a newsletter as an alternative to more traditional methods of reaching an audience. 

“The newsletter was kind of a way to build my own entry-level steps,” said Cook. “Luckily 2016 was a deeply fascinating time for Southeast Asia, so that really helped build an audience that maybe would have been a bit harder to find.”

She said that switching to a paid subscription format on Substack had allowed her to do more of the work she wanted to do. 

“By going with a paid subscription [model], it means that I can really hone in on these stories that wouldn’t get a run anywhere else, and I can connect directly with the audiences that understand that and are looking for that sort of thing,” said Cook. “That’s definitely one of the advantages of going down the newsletter path rather than sticking with the traditional outlets.”

Tanmoy Goswami, who writes about mental health on Sanity by Tanmoy, first started writing a newsletter because the pandemic had forced the publication he was working for to shut down. He wanted to find another way to connect with his readers, so he started his newsletter in December 2020.

“Within 100 days, it became one of the top paid, health-related newsletters on Substack,” said Goswami.

Alan Soon, who started Splice Media to help drive the transformation of Asia’s media industry, said the pandemic has been good for media organizations in some ways.

“I think there’s going to be a net-positive outcome when all of this is said and done,” said Soon. I think the acceleration and pushing newsrooms to adopt new technologies and workflows has been really powerful.”

“Because of the pandemic, a lot of journalists have discovered new ways to engage audiences, and I think this is really a good thing.”

Watch the full discussion below:

In spite of China’s power and influence across the globe, its foreign policy is driven by paranoia and distrust, said Hong Kong-born journalist Joanna Chiu in a Zoom talk hosted by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club. 

The author of China Unbound: A New World Disorder, which details China’s rapid international rise and the ways Western nations have contributed to a state of global disorder, Chiu explained how her reporting revealed “paranoid rhetoric” and a tendency of United Front effort to focus on individuals and “no-names” who don’t pose a meaningful threat to the CCP. 

Asked to explain this paranoia, Chiu said it had everything to do with history. 

“That’s partly why I provide a lot of historical context, because I think to understand what Beijing’s doing, the great paranoia of Chinese leaders, it’s also important to understand the history of Western colonialism and imperialism in China,” said Chiu. “That’s a really important backdrop.”

She went on to explain that targeting individuals perhaps stemmed from the fact that past incidents such as the Taiping Rebellion had been started by ordinary people. She added that targeting overseas Chinese, who may not even identify with China in any meaningful way, reveals a paternalistic impulse of the CCP. 

In her book, Chiu examines the relationships between China and a number of Western countries including Turkey, Italy, Greece, Australia, Canada and the United States. She said all of these countries are experiencing increased tensions with China “where it’s no longer a war of words or diplomatic disputes — it’s in the economic sphere.”

Still, she said, she hoped her reporting helps to disprove a narrative that so-called middle powers have no negotiating power with regards to China.

“Western countries aren’t powerless”, said Chiu.

Watch the full discussion below:

In a lunch talk at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club during which he shared his thoughts and reflections on the 2020 National Security Law passed by the central government, senior barrister Cheng Huan said that Hong Kong has a legal obligation to enact its own national security law under Article 23 of the Basic Law as soon as possible. 

“My biggest disappointment is that, for 17 years after 2003, one administration after another, and especially the members of LegCo, consistently failed to carry out their constitutional duty according to the Basic Law by not enacting Article 23,” said Cheng. “Because they failed to do so, Hong Kong now has a National Security Law imposed from above. This should never have been necessary.”

He continued: “There was next to no input from Hong Kong as to how the 2020 law was to be enacted. The law’s contents did not pass through the legislative scrutiny that all local legislation must go through. I very much hope this mistake will never be repeated.”

He concluded with a warning: “If Hong Kong is again negligent of its duty, we should not be surprised if the central government again intervenes. It is essential that Hong Kong honors its duty under the Basic Law by implementing Article 23 as soon as possible.”

Earlier in the talk, Cheng said that all countries have laws to protect themselves and that each one strikes its own balance between security and freedom. 

“The severity of security laws ranges wide from jurisdiction to another, but laymen are often surprised to discover how onerous and oppressive they can be, even when created by liberal Western democracies,” said Cheng. “Even in the United Kingdom, extremely harsh security laws have been used, most notably in Northern Ireland during the 30 years of civil disorder there known as the Troubles.”

Cheng also shared his thoughts on the role that the FCC itself plays in Hong Kong society, as evidenced by his invitation to speak at the club. 

“The FCC is a broad church practicing democracy and tolerance of all shades of opinion. It preaches what it believes — freedom of speech — and even the freedom to hold different opinions.”

Watch the full discussion below:

The role raising livestock for meat consumption plays in increasing greenhouse gas emissions is well known, but as Green Monday CEO David Yeung explained in a lunch talk at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club, eating seafood should be considered equally bad. 

“There is a gigantic piece of the puzzle that is missing, that is not talked about and public awareness is extremely low, and it’s about the ocean,” said Yeung, who’s behind a line of vegan meat alternatives called OmniFoods.  

He shared data showing that fishing has increased by 900% over the last 70 years, a trajectory that he called “utterly unsustainable.” 

“The way we fish nowadays is, we just wipe out the ocean,” said Yeung. “There’s something called bottom trawling, in which they basically pull giant, enormous nets just off the ground of the ocean and basically take anything out from the sea, and that just kills the entire marine ecosystem.” 

He explained that more than 25% of carbon dioxide levels are offset by the ocean, which in turn releases 50 to 70 percent of the oxygen we breathe. 

“By absolutely devastating the entire marine ecosystem, we are driving our ocean to death, which means it loses its capability to offset carbon dioxide, release oxygen, and of course produce healthy, sustainable seafood for us to consume.”

Watch the full discussion below:

In China’s Russian Princess: The Silent Wife of Chiang Ching-kuo, author Mark O’Neill tells the extraordinary and largely unknown story of how a factory worker named Faina Ipat’evna Vakhreva ended up married to the son of Chiang Kai-shek.

O’Neill lived in Taiwan from 1981 to 1983, when the island was still under martial law, and Chian Ching-kuo was president at the time. O’Neill said that his wife was never seen in public or on television, and little seemed to be known about her, which is what inspired him to research and write this book.

In a presentation at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club, O’Neill recounted how Chiang and Vakhreva met while they were working, most unexpectedly, at the same heavy machinery plant in Yekaterinburg. She was born in Orsha in 1916 and fled war to the more favorably located Yekaterinburg. Chiang, meanwhile, had asked his father, Chiang Kai-shek, if he could study at Sun Yat-sen University in Moscow, where he excelled at learning Russian and drinking and dancing, among other things. 

After graduating, he attended a military academy in Leningrad, after which Stalin would not permit him to return to China, effectively holding him hostage in the Soviet Union. Chiang was exiled to a communal farm, then a labor camp, and finally Uralmash, the heavy machinery plant where he met his future wife. 

The couple did eventually leave for China, where they endured World War II and civil war before fleeing to Taiwan in 1949. It’s an altogether fascinating story, one worth diving into for all the dramatic details.

Watch the full event below: